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Bitcoin is down 1.2% since the close brief, at 79,555, and Ether is down 1.6%. The day turns on Average Hourly Earnings m/m at 01:30 PM UTC (forecast 0.3%, previous 0.1%). The desk closed 5 since the last brief for +1.65R.
Alts, daily close: the basket is -5.7% on the week, 32% of 197 coins above their 20-day average, 4 pumping (ELSA, APPSTOCK, CAP, FLUID). The sample's base rate is a median -1.7% week for the basket, up about a third of the time.
Since the last brief
- The regime read changed since the close brief.
- BTC −1.2% since the close brief
- ETH −1.6% since the close brief
- SOL −0.3% since the close brief
- PAXG +1.4% since the close brief
- BTC funding is now higher than 68% of the last 90 days, up from 6%
- ETH funding is now higher than 89% of the last 90 days, up from 26%
Majors
Prices and sparklines from Kraken; the sparkline is the last seven days on 4h. Range position: 0% at the 20-day low, 100% at the high.
Positioning
| Coin | Funding | Funding vs history | Open interest | OI 24h | OI vs history | Long/short |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | +0.0100% | $7.56B | −2.5% | 1.39 | ||
| ETH | +0.0100% | $5.65B | +2.9% | 1.98 | ||
| SOL | +0.0100% | $878.3M | +1.5% | 2.74 |
Funding in % per 8h from Binance (Bybit when Binance has none); open interest and long/short from Binance and Bybit. Each bar places today's number among the coin's own last 90 days: a full bar is higher than every day of them. The top and bottom tenth are marked.
Liquidations
Last hour$383.6K longs · $15.2K shortsLast 24 hours$13.2M longs · $58.6M shortsOur own recording of the Bybit, Binance and OKX liquidation streams.
Biggest print: BTC short $5.7M at 80,798 · 03:13 PM UTC
Options positioning
- Call wall80,000+0.6% from spot
- Put wall80,000+0.6% from spot
- Max pain79,000−0.7% from spot
- Gamma flip76,772−3.5% from spot
- Call wall2,400+0.6% from spot
- Put wall2,400+0.6% from spot
- Max pain2,350−1.5% from spot
- Gamma flip2,260−5.3% from spot
From Deribit's options book. Positive gamma: dealers tend to damp moves. Negative: they tend to add to them. The flip is where that changes.
Levels the bot tracks
- BTCPDH81,180+2.0% away
- BTCPDL75,625−4.9% away
- BTCPWH81,882+2.9% away
- BTCPWL76,156−4.3% away
- ETHPDH2,447+2.6% away
- ETHPDL2,223−6.8% away
- ETHPWH2,390+0.2% away
- ETHPWL2,170−9.0% away
Levels computed by the bot from price (prior highs and lows, opens, pattern necklines), not picks by the desk. Set alerts on these levels in the Terminal.
Macro and rates
Indices, the dollar, gold and Treasury yields from Yahoo Finance.
Today's events
From the ForexFactory calendar; times in your time zone.
- Average Hourly Earnings m/mForecast 0.3%Previous 0.1%
- Non-Farm Employment ChangeForecast 65KPrevious 29K
- Unemployment RateForecast 4.2%Previous 4.2%
Earnings
| Company | When | EPS forecast | EPS actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | – | 1.68 | 1.84 | +9.5% |
| AAPL | – | 1.98 | 2.05 | +3.5% |
| PLTR | – | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.0% |
Dates and estimates from Nasdaq.
The desk
Closed since the last brief
R is the result in units of the risk taken. Every call is on the public record, losses included.
Headlines
- CNBC MarketsHere's what the Democratic election rout could mean for the U.S. economy
- CNBC MarketsBank of England hikes interest rate for the first time since Iran war, warns inflation will near 5%
- CNBC MarketsVoters say the economy drove them to the polls — and blame Trump for their troubles
- CNBC MarketsAnalysis: The Democrats have one chance to extract concessions from Trump. Markets will hate it
- CNBC MarketsPrivate companies added 86,000 jobs in October, slightly higher than expected, ADP says
- CNBC MarketsEuro zone inflation hits 4% for first time in three years as interest rate hike looms
Titles and links only; each opens at its source.