What this shows
Each simulated account takes the same trades with the same edge: it wins the average win with your win rate, otherwise it loses the average loss, risking the same percent of its current balance each time. Only the order of wins and losses differs, and that order is luck. The chance of the drawdown is the share of accounts that, at some point, fell that far from their own highest balance.
Why the risk per trade matters more than the win rate
Change the risk from 2% to 1%, then to 3%, and watch the drawdown chance. The edge is the same, but losses compound: lose 30% and you need about 43% to get back; lose 50% and you need 100%. Past a point, more risk per trade makes the typical account smaller, not bigger, even with a winning edge. The expectancy calculator shows where that point is for your numbers.
Losing runs are normal
At a 40% win rate, nine or ten losses in a row are typical across 200 to 300 trades, and about one trader in ten sees thirteen or more over 200 trades. The longest losing run here is the one to plan your risk around, so a normal stretch of bad luck never forces you to change how you trade.
What the model leaves out
Real trades do not all win or lose the same amount, fees and slippage chip away, and a trader's edge changes with the market. Treat the results as the shape of the risk, not a forecast. Your own stats from a journal are better inputs than guesses.