US close
🔔 US close • how the session finished
Bitcoin is up 0.5% since the open brief, at 81,217, and Solana is up 1.4%. The day turns on Advance GDP q/q at 12:30 PM UTC (forecast 3.2%, previous 1.5%). The desk closed 2 since the last brief for +0.59R.
Alts, daily close: the basket is -3.7% on the week, 33% of 198 coins above their 20-day average, 7 pumping (EVAA, APR, HAEDAL, XAN). The sample's base rate is a median -1.7% week for the basket, up about a third of the time.
Majors
Prices and sparklines from Kraken; the sparkline is the last seven days on 4h. Range position: 0% at the 20-day low, 100% at the high.
Positioning
| Coin | Funding | Funding vs history | Open interest | OI 24h | OI vs history | Long/short |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | +0.0100% | $7.74B | −0.5% | 1.97 | ||
| ETH | +0.0100% | $5.62B | +1.8% | 3.24 | ||
| SOL | +0.0100% | $932.4M | +1.6% | 3.02 |
Funding in % per 8h from Binance (Bybit when Binance has none); open interest and long/short from Binance and Bybit. Each bar places today's number among the coin's own last 90 days: a full bar is higher than every day of them. The top and bottom tenth are marked.
Liquidations
Last hour$1.1K longs · $1.8M shortsLast 24 hours$8.8M longs · $16.5M shortsOur own recording of the Bybit, Binance and OKX liquidation streams.
Biggest print: BTC long $743.2K at 80,627 · 01:23 PM UTC
Options positioning
- Call wall82,000+1.0% from spot
- Put wall80,000−1.5% from spot
- Max pain80,000−1.5% from spot
- Gamma flip78,981−2.8% from spot
- Gamma flip2,347−0.7% from spot
- Max pain2,340−1.0% from spot
- Call wall2,400+1.5% from spot
- Put wall2,300−2.7% from spot
From Deribit's options book. Positive gamma: dealers tend to damp moves. Negative: they tend to add to them. The flip is where that changes.
Levels the bot tracks
- BTCPDH81,200−0.0% away
- BTCPDL79,379−2.3% away
- BTCPWH84,840+4.5% away
- BTCPWL79,121−2.6% away
- ETHPDH2,362−0.1% away
- ETHPDL2,294−2.9% away
- ETHPWH2,525+6.8% away
- ETHPWL2,280−3.6% away
Levels computed by the bot from price (prior highs and lows, opens, pattern necklines), not picks by the desk. Set alerts on these levels in the Terminal.
Macro and rates
Indices, the dollar, gold and Treasury yields from Yahoo Finance.
Today's events
From the ForexFactory calendar; times in your time zone.
- Federal Funds RateForecast 4.00%Previous 4.00%
- FOMC Statement
- FOMC Press Conference
- Advance GDP q/qForecast 3.2%Previous 1.5%
- Core PCE (September)Forecast 0.3%Previous 0.2%
Earnings
| Company | When | EPS forecast | EPS actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | – | 0.55 | 0.51 | −8.1% |
| GOOGL | After the close | 2.94 | – | – |
| MSFT | After the close | 4.71 | – | – |
| AMZN | After the close | 2.01 | – | – |
| MSTR | After the close | 21.50 | – | – |
| COIN | After the close | 0.16 | – | – |
Dates and estimates from Nasdaq.
The desk
R is the result in units of the risk taken. Every call is on the public record, losses included.
Headlines
- CNBC MarketsTreasury Secretary Bessent talks to CNBC after Fed holds interest rates steady
- CNBC MarketsThe UK cuts energy bills, taxes banks and boosts defense in high-stakes budget
- CNBC MarketsWorld Bank's Banga: Availability of capital 'not really an issue' as AI demand drives up borrowing costs
- CNBC MarketsFed rate hikes are coming, but not this week: CNBC survey
- CNBC MarketsJobless claims near the lowest since the 1960s as low-fire trend continues
- CNBC MarketsTrump's approval rating on economy hits all-time low as midterm looms: CNBC survey
Titles and links only; each opens at its source.